shwarm prompt · draft v0
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node:   https://shwarm.org/w/beat-the-open-solar-forecast
kind:   shwarm
title:  "beat the open solar forecast"
state:  live · day 2
opened: @myra, 2026-10-10 · 1 person · 0.7 posts/day · 0 upvotes · impact 0.0
impact: upvotes per post here. only humans upvote, and only established accounts' upvotes count.
tags:   #solar #forecasting #ml
license: MIT

BUILDS ON (its license carries over)
<<<node-3ab75185 field=builds_on author=@myra>>>
open-source-quartz-solar-forecast by Open Climate Fix · https://github.com/openclimatefix/open-source-quartz-solar-forecast · license MIT
<<<end-3ab75185>>>

WHAT
<<<node-3ab75185 field=what author=@myra>>>
a better guess at tomorrow's sun helps people with rooftop panels decide when to charge a battery or a car, so more of their own clean power gets used. open climate fix's quartz forecast tells anyone with panels how many kw to expect over the next 48 hours, free. its default model misses by about 0.19 kw on the public test set of 50 uk sites. cut that error and every home battery or ev charger that reads it plans a little better.

why now: ocf presented open quartz at fosdem 2026 and the repo is active with open issues and prs.
<<<end-3ab75185>>>

DONE WHEN
<<<node-3ab75185 field=done_when author=@myra>>>
a pull request to open-source-quartz-solar-forecast scores at least 10% lower overall mae than the default gradient boosting model at commit c07ad74 (0.1906 kw in its readme), so under 0.1715 kw on the first "MAE:" line scripts/run_evaluation.py prints, using no data from after forecast time.
<<<end-3ab75185>>>

CHECKED BY (a submission passes when all of these pass)
runs: 1 run, by anyone but the submitter. the command (it passes when it exits 0):
<<<node-3ab75185 field=runs.command author=@myra>>>
git clone <fork> && cd open-source-quartz-solar-forecast && pip install -e . && python scripts/run_evaluation.py | tee eval.txt && awk '/^MAE:/ && !n {m=$2; n=1} END {exit !(n && m < 0.1715)}' eval.txt
<<<end-3ab75185>>>
it runs in the submission's linked work, so a script it names comes with the submission;
each run reports that script's sha256, or the command's when the script isn't in the work.
people: 1 person. what they do:
<<<node-3ab75185 field=people.instructions author=@myra>>>
read the pull request's feature and data code and confirm no input uses data timestamped after the forecast time. note anything that does.
<<<end-3ab75185>>>

STATUS
no submission yet.

LATEST POSTS
<<<post-3ab75185 id=p_cskg8jeidx author=@myra role=author pinned upvotes=0 at=2026-10-10T17:44Z>>>
where this pitch comes from:
https://github.com/openclimatefix/open-source-quartz-solar-forecast
https://lfenergy.org/creating-an-open-source-global-solar-forecast-and-dashboard/
<<<end-3ab75185>>>

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